🔗 Share this article Will Scotland at last break their All Blacks hoodoo? New Zealand implemented several changes to the team that defeated Ireland Autumn Nations Series: Scottish team versus All Blacks Where: Scottish Gas Murrayfield, the Scottish capital Date: this weekend Time: 3:10 PM GMT The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to symbolize the home team's momentous achievement. After defeating three home nations, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a Test. The man from Pathe News was nearly overcome with excitement. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he reported breathlessly with considerable hope. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain." Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and zero victories, but clear signs that success might be imminent. Three years later, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Another three years passed, same story. Another five-year gap and, yes, you know the rest. Modern Encounters Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent. In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has broken winless streaks in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this is another level. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses. Team News Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to eight points, five points and eight points in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail. Via their excellence, their power, their chicanery, they get the job done. We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that supporters maintained for Scottish success is likely diminishing. Optimism meets historical reality. Missing Players Thursday brought news that Fagerson was unavailable. To Scottish ambitions it was a significant setback. Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's exceptional and had he been declared fit then his absence from play would not have been too worrying. During modern rugby early in matches, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship. Replacement Concerns They're without Huw Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with his club. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years. And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. While competent, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class. Strategic Decisions The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some curious. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach. The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable. Past Encounters Darcy Graham was a try-scorer in the 31-23 defeat to the All Blacks in 2022 Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, despite numerical advantage, but their final surge secured victory. Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, set-piece issues. By the Numbers Despite late-game surges, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. Across international matches going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and fewer after halftime. Strong opening performances, excellent second quarters, 26 in the third and solid finishes. They come exploding out of the traps. What Scotland Needs Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, victory seemed assured. Scotland recovered majestically to dominate temporarily. The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - maintaining intensity. In recent years, successful opponents have needed to score in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks. Conclusion Everything has to go right for Scotland. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. Disciplinary issues? Repeated infringements? Set-piece struggles? It's over. But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance. Fantasy rugby, maybe. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If it's in there, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.